Prediction of Spatiotemporal Invasive Risk by the Red Imported Fire Ant (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in South Korea

Abstract

In this study, we analyzed the potential distribution of red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), in response to climate change in South Korea using CLIMEX, a species distribution model. We further attempted to evaluate the risk of the distribution/invasion and subsequent dispersion by considering climatic suitability, and functional characteristics of cities and covered cultivated areas. The climatic suitability has extended from the southern and coastal regions to inland regions due to climate change. The number of areas with EI (Ecoclimatic Index) values of more than 20 was 9 (12%) in the current climate; the value was assumed to increase to 23% (2040), 24% (2060), 42% (2080), and 62% (2100) from the South Korea coast to inland. We predicted that May to October would be the most active period in seven domestic high-habitation areas. We also analyzed the invasive risk of the red imported fire ant into covered domestic cultivation areas. Considering climatic suitability, we determined that Jeju, Pohang, Busan, Ulsan, Mokpo, and Gosan would be the most affected areas. This study can provide baseline data for the management of invasive species nationally and for regional control through predictions of the probability of settlement and direction of spread.

Keywords

• climatic suitability
• CLIMEX
• digital mapping
• potential distribution
• invasive-risk analysis