PLoS ONE (Jan 2012)

A metric of influential spreading during contagion dynamics through the air transportation network.

  • Christos Nicolaides,
  • Luis Cueto-Felgueroso,
  • Marta C González,
  • Ruben Juanes

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0040961
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 7, no. 7
p. e40961

Abstract

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The spread of infectious diseases at the global scale is mediated by long-range human travel. Our ability to predict the impact of an outbreak on human health requires understanding the spatiotemporal signature of early-time spreading from a specific location. Here, we show that network topology, geography, traffic structure and individual mobility patterns are all essential for accurate predictions of disease spreading. Specifically, we study contagion dynamics through the air transportation network by means of a stochastic agent-tracking model that accounts for the spatial distribution of airports, detailed air traffic and the correlated nature of mobility patterns and waiting-time distributions of individual agents. From the simulation results and the empirical air-travel data, we formulate a metric of influential spreading--the geographic spreading centrality--which accounts for spatial organization and the hierarchical structure of the network traffic, and provides an accurate measure of the early-time spreading power of individual nodes.