Effect of climate change scenarios on yield and water balance components in ricewheat cropping system in Central Punjab, India

Abstract

The study focuses on simulating the effect of climate change under RCP4.5 scenario on irrigation requirements,crop yield, crop duration, and water -use efficiency of rice–wheat cropping system with DSSAT v 4.6.1 model at Ludhiana. Model simulations predict reduction in irrigation requirements for rice crop and increase in irrigation requirements for wheat crop under RCP 4.5 scenarios. Also reductions in crop yields in future associated with shortening of growth period due to increased temperature were predicted by the model. Increased rainfall in future would decrease irrigation water requirement of crops but would not offset the adverse effect of increased temperature. Although evapotranspiration would decrease towards end of the century, yet relatively more decrease in yield would lower water use efficiency.

Keywords

• Climate change scenarios
• bias correction functions
• DSSAT,
• rice–wheat cropping system