Cost Valuation and Climate Mitigation Impacts of Forest Management: A Case Study from Piatra Craiului National Park, Romania

Abstract

With the intensification of the effects of climate change, the urgent need to address their drivers, especially greenhouse gas emissions, has become essential. In this context, forests offer a robust solution, with their potential to store and mitigate carbon emissions. However, striking a balance is critical given the significant economic contribution of the forestry and wood-based industries, which account for about 5% of Romania’s GDP and employ 6% (around 300 thousand) of its active workforce. This study, conducted in the Piatra Craiului National Park located in Romania’s Southern Carpathians, we utilize the EFISCEN application to generate three distinct 50-year forest evolution scenarios based on harvest intensity, namely Business As Usual (BAU), Maximum Intensity (MAX), and No Harvest (MIN), on two historical different managed forests, i.e., conservation and production. The study aims to guide forest owners in decision making with scenario modeling tools, with the objectives of assessing the forest carbon sequestration potential and evaluating the economic feasibility. In the most probable scenario, the BAU scenario, the growing stock increases from 2.6 million m3 to 3.8 million m3 over 50 years, with a more than 40% increase. Comparing the carbon stock change for all tree harvest scenario types indicates that the MIN scenario has the highest carbon sink capacity in the next 50 years; the BAU scenario is a well-balanced option between carbon sink and wood provision and has an optimal EUR 3.7 million in annual revenue. The MAX scenario can boost the growth and increase the annual revenue from wood by 35% but is effective only for a short time and thus has the smallest calculated revenue in time. Achieving a win–win relationship between carbon sequestration and wood supply is imperative, as well as good planning and scenarios to contribute to climate mitigation and also as provisions for local communities and to sustain the local economy.

Keywords

• climate change effects
• peri-urban forest management
• forest stability
• urban expansion
• greenhouse gas emissions
• forest resilience