Modeling exchange rate volatility in CEEC countries: Impact of global financial and European sovereign debt crisis

Abstract

The aim of this study is to envisage the impact of global financial (GFC) and European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC) on foreign exchange markets of emerg- ing countries in Central and Eastern Europe CEEC countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, poland and Serbia). The daily returns of exchange rates on Czech Republic koruna (CZK), Hungarian forint (HuF), Romanian lea (RoL), polish zloty (pLZ) and Serbian dinar (RSD), all against the Euro are analyzed during the period from 3rd January 2000 to15th April 2013, in respect. To examine the impact of global financial crisis and European sovereign debt crisis, dummy variables were adopted. overall results imply that global financial crisis has no impact on exchange rate returns in selected CEEC countries, while European sovereign debt crisis inf luencing in depreciation of polish zloty by 8% and Roma- nian lea by 6%. obtained results by our calculation, imply that global financial crisis increased enhanced volatility on exchange rate returns of Czech koruna, Romanian lea and polish zloty. Moreover, results of empirical analysis imply that this impact has the strongest inf luence in volatility on exchange rate returns of polish zloty.

Keywords

• exchange rate
• volatility
• global financial crisis
• European sovereign debt crisis
• CEEC countries