Development of a mathematical model to predict the cost of Ethiopian Roads Authority road projects: the case of Ethiopia

Abstract

AbstractAll across the world, the construction industry is a very crucial sector for development. Cost prediction is the process of forecasting the cost of construction projects at an early stage. An effective estimation technique is necessary to reduce the effort, time, and cost. Therefore, the study aims to develop a mathematical model to predict the cost of Ethiopian Roads Authority road projects in the case of Ethiopia. The data were collected from primary and secondary sources. The method of data analysis for the study was multiple regression analysis, and it was done using SP SS and Microsoft Excel. The data were obtained from a road document review and a questionnaire survey of 62 respondents and 15 interviewers who are working in ERA. The major cost-influential factors were found to be: inflation rate, bridges, culverts, project length, width, type and scope, contract duration, and location. As a result, a multiple regression model was developed using nine significant parameters taken from 18 completed road projects. The multiple regression analysis result revealed that the model can perform at a success rate of 83.8%. The MAPE of the model was ±16.44%. The conclusion and recommendations are likely to support and reduce ineffective estimation trends.

Keywords

• Cost prediction
• project cost
• regression model
• road projects
• Roads Authority
• Mathematical Model