Validation of PRECIS baseline (1961-1990) simulation for middle Gujarat agroclimatic zone

Abstract

The simulated temperature and precipitation by PRECIS model for nearest grid points were compared with the observed data of Anand (22.58 °N, 72.92 °E) during baseline period (1960–1990) to judge the usability of the simulated climate data. It was found that the simulation of rainfall events by model were fairly accurate only for July with overall agreement index value of 0.79 with considerably high values of difference measures. PRECIS showed average performance in simulation of maximum temperature with overall agreement index value of 0.81. The error statistics and difference measures were average except January, February and July months for maximum temperature. The simulation performance of PRECIS for all months of the year and overall performance (with index of agreement ‘d’=0.96, r2=0.85, RMSE=2.36 and CV%=11.74%) was found excellent in case of minimum temperature prediction for the baseline period (1961-1990). Though, minimum temperature was slightly overestimated for February to May months.

Keywords

• Validation
• PRECIS
• simulation
• baseline period