Spatial and temporal analysis and forecasting of TB reported incidence in western China

Abstract

Abstract Objective Tuberculosis (TB) remains an important public health concern in western China. This study aimed to explore and analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of TB reported incidence in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China and to construct the optimal models for prediction, which would provide a reference for the prevention and control of TB and the optimization of related health policies. Methods We collected monthly data on TB reported incidence in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China and used ArcGIS software to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of TB reported incidence. We applied the seasonal index method for the seasonal analysis of TB reported incidence and then established the SARIMA and Holt-Winters models for TB reported incidence in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China. Results The reported incidence of TB in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China showed apparent spatial clustering characteristics, and Moran’s I was greater than 0 (p 0.05). Conclusions As a hotspot of reported TB incidence, Tibet should continue to strengthen government leadership and policy support, explore TB intervention strategies and causes. The optimal prediction models we developed for reported TB incidence in 12 provinces and municipalities in western China were different.

Keywords

• Tuberculosis
• Reported incidence
• Spatial and temporal analysis
• SARIMA
• Holt-Winters
• Forecasting