Investigation of Seasonal and Annual Wind Speed Distribution of Tarnab Based on Weibull and Rayleigh Distribution Models

Abstract

This study aims to statistically analyze wind speed data of Tarnab, Peshawar, for the period 2004-2023. The data was recorded at the Agriculture Research Institute, Tarnab, Peshawar. Two statistical models (two-parameter Weibull and Rayleigh distribution functions) were applied to find the distributions of wind speeds. For the estimation of shape and scale parameters of Weibull and Rayleigh, two methods were employed: the method of moments and the energy pattern factor. Three statistical tools (mean percentage error, mean absolute percentage error, and root mean square deviation) were applied to check the error percentage of both models. The results of the Weibull distribution were much closer to the observed data than those of the Rayleigh distribution. The average values of wind speeds tended to increase from winter to summer and vice versa. The highest recorded annual and seasonal wind speeds were 26.19 in/s and 41.57 in/s, respectively, while the lowest values were 7.11 in/s and 4.95 in/s, respectively. Thus, while ruling out the possibility of harnessing wind as a significant source of energy, the findings are still useful for the crops produced in the region.

Keywords

• Wind speed
• Weibull distribution
• Rayleigh distribution
• shape factor
• scale factor