On qualitative analysis of a discrete time SIR epidemical model

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to study the local dynamics and bifurcations of a discrete-time SIR epidemiological model. The existence and stability of disease-free and endemic fixed points are investigated along with a fairly complete classification of the systems bifurcations, in particular, a complete analysis on local stability and codimension 1 bifurcations in the parameter space. Sufficient conditions for positive trajectories are given. The existence of a 3-cycle is shown, which implies the existence of cycles of arbitrary length by the celebrated Sharkovskii’s theorem. Generacity of some bifurcations is examined both analytically and through numerical computations. Bifurcation diagrams along with numerical simulations are presented. The system turns out to have both rich and interesting dynamics.

Keywords

• Discrete time SIR epidemic model
• Stability
• Fixed points
• n-cycles
• Limit cycles
• Flip bifurcation