Temporal and spatial distributions of animal and human rabies cases during 2012 and 2018, in Tunisia

Abstract

Abstract Rabies is one of the most important zoonosis in Tunisia. In the last 6 years, a dramatic increase in the number of cases in animals had raised concern about the transmission dynamics of rabies and the effectiveness of established control measures. For a better understanding of the epidemiological features of rabies in Tunisia, data on animal and human rabies cases and post‐exposure prophylaxis (PEP) protocol, for the period from 2012 to 2018, were analysed to describe the spatial and the temporal distributions of the disease and to guide targeted rabies control measures. Thus, the analysed data have shown that 2,642 animal and 25 human rabies cases were recorded between 2012 and 2018; only few case numbers were reported in wildlife. Time‐related distribution showed that the incidence of dog rabies increases over the period of study, from 24,8/100,000 dog population in 2012 to 35,2/100,000 dog population in 2018. Dog seems to be the main reservoir of rabies as it accounted for more than 59% of the animal confirmed cases and the source for more than 80% of the human confirmed cases. Geographical distribution of animal rabies cases revealed the presence of clusters in the North and the Center of Tunisia; only a little number of animal cases were reported in the South. In contrast, the overall human rabies incidence was 0.03 per 100,000 population, during the period of the study. We have found that the incidence of human rabies increases by 13.6% from 2012 to 2015 and drops steadily by 23.41% over the second period (2015 to 2018). A high number of PEP was recorded during the 7‐year period, with an average of 360 PEP per 100,000 inhabitants per year. Spatial analysis revealed the presence of clusters of PEP in the Northern and Central governorates. The present study pointed out the need to review the control strategy of rabies in Tunisia and conduct further studies on dog population to provide the basis for a new and efficacious policy of interventions and control program for rabies.

Keywords

• clusters
• dog
• epidemiology
• hotspot
• human
• rabies