Order-up-to-level inventory optimization model using time-series demand forecasting with ensemble deep learning

Abstract

Inventory control aims to meet customer demands at a given service level while minimizing cost. As a result of market volatility, customer demand is generally changing, and ignoring this uncertainty could lead to under or over-estimation of inventories resulting in shortages or inefficiencies. Inventory managers need batch ordering such that the ordered items arrive before the depletion of stocks due to the lead time between the ordering point and delivery. Therefore, to meet demand while optimizing the cost of the inventory system, firms must forecast future demands to address ordering uncertainties. Traditionally, it was challenging to predict such uncertainties with high accuracy. The availability of high volumes of historical data and big data analytics have made it easier to overcome such a challenge. This study aims to predict future demand in the case of an online retail industry using ensemble deep learning-based forecasting methods with a comparison of their performance. Compared to single-model learning, ensemble learning could improve the accuracy of predictions by combining the best performance of each model. Also, the advantages of deep learning and ensemble learning are combined in ensemble deep learning models, allowing the final model to be more generalizable. Finally, safety stocks are estimated using the forecasted demand distribution, optimizing the inventory system under a cycle service level objective.

Keywords

• Inventory management
• Demand forecasting
• Optimization
• Ensemble deep learning
• Multivariate time-series forecasting