Sales Prediction on the Diamond Cell Counter Using Autoregresive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Method

Abstract

Diamond Cell is a specialized retailer that offers a diverse range of smartphone accessories, electronic credits, and internet vouchers from different providers, each with varying active periods. However, the uncertainty surrounding internet voucher sales transactions often leaves counter owners hesitant to increase their stock due to the short active period of the vouchers. This leads to frequent customer dissatisfaction as the internet vouchers run out, resulting in lost sales opportunities. To address this issue, this study aimed to predict voucher sales for the upcoming month to serve as a reference for calculating the stock of voucher supply. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method was used based on voucher sales data from November 2022 to January 2023. Out of the three tentative models obtained, only one proved suitable for use. The best ARIMA model was the (2,1,0) model, with a MAD value of 29.65, an MSE value of 2409.95, and a MAPE value of 23.3%. Based on the February voucher sales, the stock level can remain the same as the previous period since the sales were stable. The findings of this study can help Diamond Cell counter owners make more informed decisions about stocking internet vouchers, resulting in better customer satisfaction and reduced likelihood of losses.

Keywords

• arima, forecasting, sales, internet vouchers.