Frontiers in Medicine (Apr 2023)

Assessment of risk scores to predict mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit

  • Matheus Carvalho Alves Nogueira,
  • Vandack Nobre,
  • Magda Carvalho Pires,
  • Lucas Emanuel Ferreira Ramos,
  • Yara Cristina Neves Marques Barbosa Ribeiro,
  • Rubia Laura Oliveira Aguiar,
  • Flavia Maria Borges Vigil,
  • Virginia Mara Reis Gomes,
  • Camila de Oliveira Santos,
  • Davi Mesquita Miranda,
  • Pamela Andrea Alves Durães,
  • Josiane Moreira da Costa,
  • Josiane Moreira da Costa,
  • Alexandre Vargas Schwarzbold,
  • Alexandre Vargas Schwarzbold,
  • Angélica Gomides dos Reis Gomes,
  • Bruno Porto Pessoa,
  • Carolina Cunha Matos,
  • Christiane Corrêa Rodrigues Cimini,
  • Cíntia Alcântara de Carvalho,
  • Daniela Ponce,
  • Euler Roberto Fernandes Manenti,
  • Evelin Paola de Almeida Cenci,
  • Fernando Anschau,
  • Flávia Carvalho Cardoso Costa,
  • Francine Janaina Magalhães Nascimento,
  • Frederico Bartolazzi,
  • Genna Maira Santos Grizende,
  • Heloisa Reniers Vianna,
  • Jomar Cristeli Nepomuceno,
  • Karen Brasil Ruschel,
  • Karen Brasil Ruschel,
  • Liege Barella Zandoná,
  • Luís César de Castro,
  • Maíra Dias Souza,
  • Marcelo Carneiro,
  • Maria Aparecida Camargos Bicalho,
  • Maria Aparecida Camargos Bicalho,
  • Mariana do Nascimento Vilaça,
  • Naiara Patrícia Fagundes Bonardi,
  • Neimy Ramos de Oliveira,
  • Raquel Lutkmeier,
  • Saionara Cristina Francisco,
  • Silvia Ferreira Araújo,
  • Polianna Delfino-Pereira,
  • Polianna Delfino-Pereira,
  • Milena Soriano Marcolino,
  • Milena Soriano Marcolino,
  • Milena Soriano Marcolino

DOI
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2023.1130218
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 10

Abstract

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ObjectivesTo assess the ABC2-SPH score in predicting COVID-19 in-hospital mortality, during intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and to compare its performance with other scores (SOFA, SAPS-3, NEWS2, 4C Mortality Score, SOARS, CURB-65, modified CHA2DS2-VASc, and a novel severity score).Materials and methodsConsecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to ICUs of 25 hospitals, located in 17 Brazilian cities, from October 2020 to March 2022, were included. Overall performance of the scores was evaluated using the Brier score. ABC2-SPH was used as the reference score, and comparisons between ABC2-SPH and the other scores were performed by using the Bonferroni method of correction. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality.ResultsABC2-SPH had an area under the curve of 0.716 (95% CI 0.693–0.738), significantly higher than CURB-65, SOFA, NEWS2, SOARS, and modified CHA2DS2-VASc scores. There was no statistically significant difference between ABC2-SPH and SAPS-3, 4C Mortality Score, and the novel severity score.ConclusionABC2-SPH was superior to other risk scores, but it still did not demonstrate an excellent predictive ability for mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Our results indicate the need to develop a new score, for this subset of patients.

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