The impact of international logistics cost on international trade based on VAR model

Abstract

In this paper, an impact degree indicator system with several indicators is established, and the stability, estimation, lag selection and forecasting of the VAR model are considered in the model construction, and the MVAR model structure and estimation methods are also studied. Chongqing city is selected as the object for the actual case, and the influence degree of international logistics factors on international trade is explored, and the influence of transportation costs on real trade is studied in depth from two aspects: the spatial and temporal dimensions and the influence of high logistics costs on the trade of CIS countries. The study results show that: high logistics costs lead to the concentration of international trade in Central Asian countries up to 0.4 to 0.5. More than half of the goods the six CIS countries sell to the EU are concentrated on one or two specific items. The impact of international logistics costs is so significant that it cannot be ignored in international trade.

Keywords

• var
• mixed vector autoregression
• international logistics costs
• international trade
• indicator system
• 91b44