A quasi-cyclical regressive model of the pandemic impact on Romanian e-market

Abstract

The emergence and accelerated spread of COVID-19 has severely affected Romanian and European e-Market, manifested by the explosion of sales of basic products. We propose in this paper a non-linear model of growth of e-Commerce observed in the Romanian retail sector that consider the economic and socials effects of the two pandemic Waves in 2020. Starting from the hypothesis, statistically verified, that the effect of a Pandemic crisis can be strongly related to the global increase of sales in e-Market and the accentuation of seasonal variation of this sector, we obtained a first nonlinear model that can simulate with a high level of confidence (95%) the chaotically effects of a pandemic crisis on the very volatile sector of digital retailing and allows a prediction of the general behaviour of Romanian e-Market for 2021 and 2022.

Keywords

• e-market
• non-linear regression model
• post-pandemic market behaviour