A Hybrid Model for Probabilistic Analysis of Modern Power Systems with Integration of Renewable Energy Resources

Abstract

Modern power systems faces various uncertainties both from conventional sources, due to stochastic nature of both the load and the availability of generation resources and transmission assets, and from renewable resources. The increasing penetration of wind and solar power generation introduces additional uncertainty, causing more difficulties in power system analysis. To deal with uncertainties, Probabilistic Power Flow (PPF) has been introduced as an efficient tool. In this paper, we develop a hybrid model that combines scenario analysis technique and cumulant based PPF approach. It can take into account various sources of uncertainty in the power system and their correlations. The proposed approach is performed on IEEE-118 bus test system, indicating good performance in comparison with Monte Carlo approach.

Keywords

• renewable energy
• uncertainty
• probabilistic power flow
• cumulant
• scenario analysis