The impact of the Dagangshan Reservoir impoundment in Sichuan Province on the 2022 Luding MS 6.8 earthquake and its aftershocks

Abstract

Objective The MS 6.8 earthquake that struck Luding County, Sichuan Province, on September 5, 2022, and its aftershocks have drawn widespread attention, especially concerning the potential risks of induced seismicity associated with the construction of high-dam reservoirs in regions with high seismic intensity. Previous studies have explored the possible link between reservoirs and seismic activity, without reaching a definitive conclusion. This study aims to assess the impact of water storage in the Dagangshan Reservoir on the surrounding strata and its correlation with recent seismic events. Methods Numerical simulation methods were employed using high-precision digital elevation model (DEM) data, fault data, and reservoir water level information to develop a three-dimensional poroelastic finite element numerical model extending from the surface to a depth of 25 km. By analyzing the hydrogeological conditions, lithology of rock masses, and groundwater dynamic changes, this study evaluated the seismic hazard risk of major faults, such as the Moxi Fault, and calculated variations in Coulomb stress and strata pore pressure at the hypocenter during the occurrence of the earthquake. Results The study indicates that, during the MS 6.8 Luding earthquake on September 5, 2022, the pore pressure at the epicenter reached 5 kPa, and the Coulomb stress increased by 3.6 kPa, suggesting that the impoundment of the Dagangshan Reservoir contributed to an increased risk along the Moxi Fault on the northwestern side of the reservoir. Using the source parameters of the MS 5.6 aftershock that occurred on January 26, 2023, it was observed that the impoundment caused a change in Coulomb stress at the epicenter of -0.69 kPa and a pore pressure of approximately 0.32 kPa. It is evident that the reservoir impoundment had a relatively minor impact on the fault activity where the MS 5.6 aftershock occurred and even exhibited a certain inhibitory effect. Moreover, seismic activity was mainly concentrated in two areas on the western side of the reservoir, with both the seismicity and expected magnitudes in these regions reflecting a higher risk of earthquakes. Conclusion This study demonstrates a correlation between the impoundment activities of the Dagangshan Reservoir and the occurrence of the Luding County earthquake and its aftershocks. The spatial distribution characteristics of the earthquakes align with the geological stress adjustment patterns following the reservoir impoundment, which played a promotive role in the occurrence of the MS 6.8 main shock, leading to an increased risk of earthquakes in the Moxi Fault region. This finding is significant for understanding the mechanisms of reservoir-induced earthquakes, subsequent aftershock analyses, and earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation efforts. Significance The results of this study provide new insights into the complex relationship between reservoir water storage and seismic events. This study offers a scientific basis for future assessments of seismic risks of reservoir design and operation, contributing to improved accuracy in earthquake early warnings and efficiency in disaster prevention and mitigation efforts.

Keywords

• luding earthquake
• reservoir-induced earthquake
• coulomb stress
• pore pressure
• finite element numerical simulation