Correlation of AIMS65 Score and Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte Ratio with Death duringHospitalisation in Elderly Patients with Ruptured Esophagogastric VeinHaemorrhage in Cirrhosis

Abstract

Objective To evaluate the feasibility of AIMS65 score combined with neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(NLR) in predicting in-hospital death from esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding(EGVB) in cirrhosis in order to assist clinical patient management. Methods A total of 326 patients with EGVB due to liver cirrhosis who were hospitalized in Taizhou People′s Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University from January 2018 to October 2022 were selected as the study subjects.According to the outcome during hospitalization, 33 patients were divided into death group and 293 patients into survival group.The clinical data of all patients were collected by electronic medical records, and multivariate logistic regression was used to screen the independent risk factors for in-hospital death in cirrhotic EGVB patients;ROC curve was used to analyze the clinical value of AIMS65 score combined with NLR at admission in predicting in-hospital death in EGVB patients. Results Univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences in albumin, NLR, and AIMS65 scores between the two groups(P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that NLR and AIMS65 scores were independent risk factors for in-hospital death in cirrhotic EGVB patients(P<0.05).ROC curve analysis showed that AIMS65 combined with NLR was more effective than AIMS65 alone and NLR in predicting in-hospital death in cirrhotic EGVB patients, with the highest predictive efficacy, and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05). Conclusion AIMS65 score combined with NLR can predict the risk of in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic EGVB patients, providing ideas for risk stratification as well as individualized intervention in such patients.

Keywords

• cirrhosis
• esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding
• in-hospital death
• risk prediction