Climate change and potential distribution of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Central Iran: Horizon 2030 and 2050

Abstract

Objective: To investigate and predict the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of the main vector and reservoir hosts of the disease in Yazd province in the future. Methods: Distribution data for vector and reservoir hosts of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Yazd province were obtained from earlier studies conducted in the area. MaxEnt ecological niche modeling was used to predict environmental suitability. BCC-CSM1-1(m) model and two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used for horizons 2030 and 2050 climate projections. Future projections were based on data of a regional climate change model. Results: With both scenarios in 2030 and 2050, the results of jackknife test indicated that the mean temperature of wettest quarter and temperature annual range had the greatest effect on the model for the vector and the reservoir hosts, respectively. Conclusions: The climate conditions are the major determinants of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence rate in Yazd Province. These climate conditions provide favorable habitats for ease transmission of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in this endemic area. Habitats suitability for the vector and reservoir will be expanding in the coming years compared with the current conditions, such that, in horizon 2030 & 2050, the probability of the presence of the vector and reservoir within 38 580 and 37 949 km2, respectively, from Yazd province is above 60%. Moreover, an increase is predicted in the presence of the vector in the western parts and the reservoir in the northern and central parts of the province in the future. Understanding the role of environmental and bioclimatic factors in zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis occurrence can provide a guide for policy-makers in the creation and implementation of more effective policies for prevention and control.

Keywords

• cutaneous leishmaniasis
• climate change
• rcp scenario
• phlebotomus papatasi
• rhombomys opimus