Age shock index and age-modified shock index are valuable bedside prognostic tools for postdischarge mortality in ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients

Abstract

AbstractBackground The incidence of mortality is considerable after ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) hospitalization; risk assessment is needed to guide postdischarge management. Age shock index (SI) and age modified shock index (MSI) were described as useful prognosis instruments; nevertheless, their predictive effect on short and long-term postdischarge mortality has not yet been sufficiently confirmed.Methods This analysis included 3389 prospective patients enrolled from 2016 to 2018. Endpoints were postdischarge mortality within 30 days and from 30 days to 1 year. Hazard ratios (HRs) were evaluated by Cox proportional-hazards regression. Predictive performances were assessed by area under the curve (AUC), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and decision curve analysis (DCA) and compared with TIMI risk score and GRACE score.Results The AUCs were 0.753, 0.746 for age SI and 0.755, 0.755 for age MSI for short- and long-term postdischarge mortality. No significant AUC differences and NRI were observed compared with the classic scores; decreased IDI was observed especially for long-term postdischarge mortality. Multivariate analysis revealed significantly higher short- and long-term postdischarge mortality for patients with high age SI (HR: 5.44 (2.73–10.85), 5.34(3.18–8.96)), high age MSI (HR: 4.17(1.78–9.79), 5.75(3.20–10.31)) compared to counterparts with low indices. DCA observed comparable clinical usefulness for predicting short-term postdischarge mortality. Furthermore, age SI and age MSI were not significantly associated with postdischarge prognosis for patients who received fibrinolysis.Conclusions Age SI and age MSI were valuable instruments to identify high postdischarge mortality with comparable predictive ability compared with the classic scores, especially for events within 30 days after hospitalization.

Keywords

• Age shock index
• age modified shock index
• ST-elevation myocardial infarction
• clinical validation