MANAGEMENT DECISION-MAKING: MULTI-CRITERION ASSESSMENT OF UNCERTAINTY

Abstract

The article highlights the main characteristics of uncertainty and risk, which need to be taken into account when making management decisions to ensure the controllability of all processes at the enterprise. The significant attention of scientists to risk and uncertainty, and their significance for management decision-making is very high, so the debate about risk and uncertainty identification and their levels still remains open. The article defines the character and types of uncertainty, identifies a number of differences between risk and uncertainty in the process of management decision-making, structures the main characteristics of uncertainty, and determines the impact of levels and types of uncertainty on management decision-making. We conducted an empirical analysis of scientific literature to determine the essence of the concept of "uncertainty" and its differences from the concept of "risk", a structural-genetic analysis of the main characteristics and causes of uncertainty, and a comparative analysis of models for determining levels of uncertainty. We identified the main characteristics of uncertainty which cause its existence and require careful consideration. The paper offers a methodical approach to assessing the level of uncertainty for managerial decision in general and for individual factors ensuring its success, which will allow management to focus on those decisions that have the highest level of uncertainty and may pose a threat to achieving the goals of enterprise development. We proposed an approach according to which the level of uncertainty can be determined both for a management decision in general and for separate factors of its success. A methodical approach to assessing the level of uncertainty is proposed to ensure the success of management decisions which will allow management to focus on those that have the highest level of uncertainty and may pose a threat to achieving goals.

Keywords

• uncertainty
• risk
• management
• decision-making