Impact of the cold surge event in January 2021 on the power system of China

Abstract

During 6–10 January 2021, a recorded strong cold surge took place in China, with over 800 observational stations reaching their historical extremes. Unlike previous studies that focused on the response of either the power load or generation separately, this study quantitatively revealed the impacts on the balance between the demand and supply sides of the grid. On the demand side, the sensitivity of power load was found to increase substantially higher in southern China (0.533 GW °C−1) than in the northern region (0.139 GW °C−1) due to the limited municipal heating system. On the supply side, the hourly wind power generation dropped from the highest of 110 GW on 6 January to the lowest of 54 GW on 9 January due to the reduction in wind speed. In addition, a reduction in solar power generation was observed during 8–10 January. Thus, the balance of the power system was influenced by this cold event. As an effective adaptation measure, results further showed that early warning by three weeks ahead can be obtained by an operational climate model. The sensitivity of China's power system to such cold surge events may increase remarkably due to the expected increase in the proportion of wind and solar power generation in future new-type power systems. Thus, close cooperation between climate scientists and power engineers is needed to build the resilience of the power system to the cold extremes.

Keywords

• Cold surge event
• Power load
• Renewable power generation
• Sub-seasonal prediction
• Adaptation