Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference as Predictors of Above-Average Increased Cardiovascular Risk Assessed by the SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP Calculators and the Proposition of New Optimal Cut-Off Values: Cross-Sectional Single-Center Study

Abstract

Background: Obesity has been perceived as one of the important cardiovascular risk factors, but SCORE2 calculators used in clinical practice do not include the most popular parameters assessed for body composition: body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC). The objective of this research was to determine which of the aforementioned variables is a more reliable predictor of an above-average increased cardiovascular risk for gender and age (ICVR). Methods: Data from 2061 patients were analyzed; the 10-year risk of cardiovascular events was assessed by SCORE2 tables, and the correlations with BMI and WC were analyzed. Results: BMI and WC independently predicted ICVR (OR 1.10–1.27). In males, BMI was a more accurate predictor (AUC = 0.816); however, in females, it was WC (AUC = 0.739). A novel threshold for BMI (27.6 kg/m2) was suggested, which increases the risk of cardiovascular disease by 3.3–5.3 times depending on gender; the same holds true for WC (93 cm in women and 99 cm in men; 3.8–4.8-fold higher risk). Conclusions: Despite their heterogeneity, BMI and WC are effective cardiovascular risk predictors, especially BMI for males and WC for females; therefore, more research is needed to include them in future models for predicting unfavorable cardiometabolic events.

Keywords

• obesity
• abdominal obesity
• cardiovascular risk
• SCORE2