ANALYSIS OF CRISIS LEVEL IN REGIONS OF UKRAINE

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to identify the crisis level in regions of Ukraine in 2013–2015. The article also determines features, causes, and development of crisis situations in the regions of Ukraine and proposes measures to prevent the emergence and development of crisis situations or their disposal. Methodology. The basis for assessing the level of crisis in the socio-economic development of the region is to determine the level of deviation of actual indicators from the threshold values of socio-economic security. Such an assessment needs justification for the deviation of the actual indicators from the threshold values of socioeconomic security, which will correspond to a certain state of the depth of the crisis. The non-crisis zone characterizes the region as a powerful territorial centre of the country in the social and economic aspects. Actual indicators of the socio-economic development of this region are higher than the threshold values. Given the slowdown in the region’s development, the lack of innovative mechanisms for increasing economic potential, and the expansion of social programs for the population, this region may become a pre-crisis zone. A quantitative indicator of the zone of pre-crisis state, its threshold is numerical measurements, characterized by a 25-percent deviation from the threshold level of the non-crisis zone, which corresponds to the limits of indicators from 1.0 to 0.75. The growth of the same pace of socio-economic development, the implementation of effective measures of crisis management will lead to the transition of the region into a non-crisis zone. With a further fall in the level of socio-economic development, the region will fall into a zone of moderate crisis. In order to return to a precrisis state, regional authorities should develop a reactive anti-crisis strategy and effective rehabilitation programs. A quantitative indicator of this zone, its threshold is numerical measurements, which corresponds to the limits of the indicators from 0.75 to 0.5. The timely implementation of liquidation measures to neutralize the effects of the existing ones and prevent new crises will lead to the transition of the region into a zone of deep crisis. The zone of deep crisis is characterized by a partial destruction of the socio-economic system of the region. Out of such a situation requires the use of systemic measures of anti-crisis state and regional management with the assistance of foreign aid. A quantitative indicator of this zone, its threshold is numerical measure, which is limited to 75 percent deviation from the threshold level of the non-crisis zone, which corresponds to the limits of indicators from 0.5 to 0.25. The zone of bankruptcy involves the complete destruction of the region as a social and economic system. The reasons for such a situation are force majeure circumstances (wars, natural disasters, man-made disasters, etc.). Such a state of the region is characterized by the cessation of the work of enterprises and organizations, the economic and social devastation of the region, the intensification of migration processes. The solution to the current situation is targeted state crisis management. A numerical indicator of this zone, its threshold is considered numerical measurements, characterized by more than 75 percent deviation from the threshold level of the non-crisis zone, which corresponds to the limits of indicators from 0.25 to 0.0. Results of the survey showed that there was a moderate level of crisis according to economic parameters with a high risk of transition into a deep crisis in 14 of 27 regions as of 2015. Practical implications. Thus, the conducted analysis on the crisis of socio-economic development of Ukraine’s regions made it possible to detect the level of its depth according to social and economic parameters and to determine the weakest areas that need the most support and display in anti-crisis regional management. Value/originality. The conducted grouping requires the use of a differentiated approach to the selection of strategies for regional crisis management from the standpoint of crisis prevention, the withdrawal of the region from the crisis and management of its consequences.

Keywords

• crisis
• crisis management
• region
• anti-crisis measures
• crisis notification