Exploring the Influence of Drug Trafficking Gangs on Overdose Deaths in the Largest Narcotics Market in the Eastern United States

Abstract

Research has found that drug markets tend to cluster in space, potentially because of the profit that can be made when customers are drawn to areas with multiple suppliers. But few studies have examined how these clusters of drug markets—which have been termed “agglomeration economies”—may be related to accidental overdose deaths, and in particular, the spatial distribution of mortality from overdose. Focusing on a large neighborhood in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, known for its open-air drug markets, this study examines whether deaths from accidental drug overdose are clustered around street corners controlled by drug trafficking gangs. This study incorporates theoretically-informed social and physical environmental characteristics of street corner units into the models predicting overdose deaths. Given a number of environmental changes relevant to drug use locations was taking place in the focal neighborhood during the analysis period, the authors first employ a novel concentration metric—the Rare Event Concentration Coefficient—to assess clustering of overdose deaths annually between 2015 and 2019. The results of these models reveal that overdose deaths became less clustered over time and that the density was considerably lower after 2017. Hence, the predictive models in this study are focused on the two-year period between 2018 and 2019. Results from spatial econometric regression models find strong support for the association between corner drug markets and accidental overdose deaths. In addition, a number of sociostructural factors, such as concentrated disadvantage, and physical environmental factors, particularly blighted housing, are associated with a higher rate of overdose deaths. Implications from this study highlight the need for efforts that strategically coordinate law enforcement, social service provision and reductions in housing blight targeted to particular geographies.

Keywords

• drug markets
• gangs
• opioids
• overdose
• spatial concentration
• generalized cross-entropy