The Lancet Regional Health. Europe (Sep 2023)
Decision-support tools to build climate resilience against emerging infectious diseases in Europe and beyond
- Joacim Rocklöv,
- Jan C. Semenza,
- Shouro Dasgupta,
- Elizabeth J.Z. Robinson,
- Ahmed Abd El Wahed,
- Tilly Alcayna,
- Cristina Arnés-Sanz,
- Meghan Bailey,
- Till Bärnighausen,
- Frederic Bartumeus,
- Carme Borrell,
- Laurens M. Bouwer,
- Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière,
- Aditi Bunker,
- Chloe Chavardes,
- Kim R. van Daalen,
- João Encarnação,
- Nube González-Reviriego,
- Junwen Guo,
- Katie Johnson,
- Marion P.G. Koopmans,
- María Máñez Costa,
- Antonios Michaelakis,
- Tomás Montalvo,
- Anna Omazic,
- John R.B. Palmer,
- Raman Preet,
- Marina Romanello,
- Mohammad Shafiul Alam,
- Reina S. Sikkema,
- Marta Terrado,
- Marina Treskova,
- Diana Urquiza,
- Rachel Lowe,
- Joacim Rocklöv,
- Junwen Guo,
- Jan C. Semenza,
- Raman Preet,
- Henrik Sjodin,
- Zia Farooq,
- Maquines Sewe,
- Marina Romanello,
- Frances MacGuire,
- Antonios Michaelakis,
- Evangelia Zavitsanou,
- Panos Milonas,
- Dimitrios Papachristos,
- Marina Bisia,
- Georgios Balatsos,
- Spyros Antonatos,
- Jaime Martinez-Urtaza,
- Joaquin Triñanes,
- João Encarnação,
- Mark Williams,
- John R.B. Palmer,
- Berj Dekramanjian,
- Karl Broome,
- Otis Johnson,
- Laurens Bouwer,
- Maria Máñez Costa,
- Adriana Martin,
- Lola Kotova,
- Thea Wübbelmann,
- Aditi Bunker,
- Till Bärnighausen,
- Fiona Walsh,
- Marina Treskova,
- Pascale Stiles,
- Jerome Baron,
- Charles Hatfield,
- Julian Heidecke,
- Pratik Singh,
- Shouro Dasgupta,
- Katie Johnson,
- Francesco Bosello,
- Elizabeth J.Z. Robinson,
- Sara Mehryar,
- Tilly Alcayna,
- Meghan Bailey,
- Marion P.G. Koopmans,
- Reina S. Sikkema,
- Pauline de Best,
- Tijmen Hartung,
- Ayat Abourashed,
- Frederic Bartumeus,
- Jesus Bellver,
- Catuxa Cerecedo,
- Rachel Lowe,
- Martín Lotto Bautista,
- Bruno Moreira de Carvalho,
- Chloe Fletcher,
- Nube González-Reviriego,
- Marta Terrado,
- Diana Urquiza,
- Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière,
- Julieta Rosenbluth,
- Marina Corradini,
- Jaume Ramon,
- Kim R. van Daalen,
- Liam Patrick Brodie,
- Alba Llabres,
- Ahmed Abd El Wahed,
- Arianna Ceruti,
- Uwe Truyen,
- Chloe Chavardes,
- Sasha Rodrigues,
- Anna Omazic,
- Erik Ågren,
- Giulio Grandi,
- Stefan Widgren,
- Masud Parvage,
- Martin Bergström,
- Mohammad Shafiul Alam,
- Rashidul Haque,
- Wasif Ali Khan,
- Tomás Montalvo,
- Andrea Valsecchi,
- Laura Barahona,
- Elisenda Realp,
- Carme Borrell,
- Stephan de Roode
Affiliations
- Joacim Rocklöv
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH) & Interdisciplinary Centre for Scientific Computing (IWR), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden; Corresponding author. Section of Sustainable Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umea University, Umea 901 87, Sweden.
- Jan C. Semenza
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH) & Interdisciplinary Centre for Scientific Computing (IWR), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- Shouro Dasgupta
- Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Venice, Italy; Graham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), London, United Kingdom
- Elizabeth J.Z. Robinson
- Graham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), London, United Kingdom
- Ahmed Abd El Wahed
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Institute of Animal Hygiene and Veterinary Public Health, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
- Tilly Alcayna
- Red Cross Red Crescent Centre on Climate Change and Disaster Preparedness, The Hague, the Netherlands; Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom; Health in Humanitarian Crises Centre, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom
- Cristina Arnés-Sanz
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH) & Interdisciplinary Centre for Scientific Computing (IWR), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- Meghan Bailey
- Red Cross Red Crescent Centre on Climate Change and Disaster Preparedness, The Hague, the Netherlands
- Till Bärnighausen
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany; Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Frederic Bartumeus
- Theoretical and Computational Ecology Group, Centre d’Estudis Avançats de Blanes (CEAB-CSIC), Blanes, Spain; Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain; Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Barcelona, Spain
- Carme Borrell
- Pest Surveillance and Control, Agència de Salut Pública de Barcelona (ASPB), Barcelona, Spain; Biomedical Research Center Network for Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain
- Laurens M. Bouwer
- Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg, Germany
- Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
- Aditi Bunker
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany; Center for Climate, Health and the Global Environment, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Chloe Chavardes
- Three O'clock, Paris, France
- Kim R. van Daalen
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain; British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- João Encarnação
- Irideon, Barcelona, Spain
- Nube González-Reviriego
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
- Junwen Guo
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- Katie Johnson
- Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Venice, Italy
- Marion P.G. Koopmans
- Department of Viroscience, Erasmus Medical Center, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
- María Máñez Costa
- Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg, Germany
- Antonios Michaelakis
- Laboratory of Insects & Parasites of Medical Importance, Benaki Phytopathological Institute (BPI), Attica, Greece
- Tomás Montalvo
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH) & Interdisciplinary Centre for Scientific Computing (IWR), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Venice, Italy; Graham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), London, United Kingdom; Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Institute of Animal Hygiene and Veterinary Public Health, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany; Red Cross Red Crescent Centre on Climate Change and Disaster Preparedness, The Hague, the Netherlands; Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom; Health in Humanitarian Crises Centre, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany; Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Theoretical and Computational Ecology Group, Centre d’Estudis Avançats de Blanes (CEAB-CSIC), Blanes, Spain; Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain; Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Barcelona, Spain; Pest Surveillance and Control, Agència de Salut Pública de Barcelona (ASPB), Barcelona, Spain; Biomedical Research Center Network for Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain; Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg, Germany; Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain; Center for Climate, Health and the Global Environment, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Three O'clock, Paris, France; British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Irideon, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Viroscience, Erasmus Medical Center, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Laboratory of Insects & Parasites of Medical Importance, Benaki Phytopathological Institute (BPI), Attica, Greece; Agència de Salut Pública de Barcelona (ASPB), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain; Institut d'Investigació Biomèdica Sant Pau (IIB SANT PAU), Barcelona, Spain; Department of Chemistry, Environment, and Feed Hygiene, National Veterinary Institute (SVA), Uppsala, Sweden; Department of Political and Social Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; Institute for Global Health, University College London (UCL), London, United Kingdom; Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Anna Omazic
- Department of Chemistry, Environment, and Feed Hygiene, National Veterinary Institute (SVA), Uppsala, Sweden
- John R.B. Palmer
- Department of Political and Social Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain
- Raman Preet
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- Marina Romanello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London (UCL), London, United Kingdom
- Mohammad Shafiul Alam
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Reina S. Sikkema
- Department of Viroscience, Erasmus Medical Center, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
- Marta Terrado
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
- Marina Treskova
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH) & Interdisciplinary Centre for Scientific Computing (IWR), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- Diana Urquiza
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
- Rachel Lowe
- Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom; Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain; Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
- Joacim Rocklöv
- Junwen Guo
- Jan C. Semenza
- Raman Preet
- Henrik Sjodin
- Zia Farooq
- Maquines Sewe
- Marina Romanello
- Frances MacGuire
- Antonios Michaelakis
- Evangelia Zavitsanou
- Panos Milonas
- Dimitrios Papachristos
- Marina Bisia
- Georgios Balatsos
- Spyros Antonatos
- Jaime Martinez-Urtaza
- Joaquin Triñanes
- João Encarnação
- Mark Williams
- John R.B. Palmer
- Berj Dekramanjian
- Karl Broome
- Otis Johnson
- Laurens Bouwer
- Maria Máñez Costa
- Adriana Martin
- Lola Kotova
- Thea Wübbelmann
- Aditi Bunker
- Till Bärnighausen
- Fiona Walsh
- Marina Treskova
- Pascale Stiles
- Jerome Baron
- Charles Hatfield
- Julian Heidecke
- Pratik Singh
- Shouro Dasgupta
- Katie Johnson
- Francesco Bosello
- Elizabeth J.Z. Robinson
- Sara Mehryar
- Tilly Alcayna
- Meghan Bailey
- Marion P.G. Koopmans
- Reina S. Sikkema
- Pauline de Best
- Tijmen Hartung
- Ayat Abourashed
- Frederic Bartumeus
- Jesus Bellver
- Catuxa Cerecedo
- Rachel Lowe
- Martín Lotto Bautista
- Bruno Moreira de Carvalho
- Chloe Fletcher
- Nube González-Reviriego
- Marta Terrado
- Diana Urquiza
- Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière
- Julieta Rosenbluth
- Marina Corradini
- Jaume Ramon
- Kim R. van Daalen
- Liam Patrick Brodie
- Alba Llabres
- Ahmed Abd El Wahed
- Arianna Ceruti
- Uwe Truyen
- Chloe Chavardes
- Sasha Rodrigues
- Anna Omazic
- Erik Ågren
- Giulio Grandi
- Stefan Widgren
- Masud Parvage
- Martin Bergström
- Mohammad Shafiul Alam
- Rashidul Haque
- Wasif Ali Khan
- Tomás Montalvo
- Andrea Valsecchi
- Laura Barahona
- Elisenda Realp
- Carme Borrell
- Stephan de Roode
- Journal volume & issue
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Vol. 32
p. 100701
Abstract
Summary: Climate change is one of several drivers of recurrent outbreaks and geographical range expansion of infectious diseases in Europe. We propose a framework for the co-production of policy-relevant indicators and decision-support tools that track past, present, and future climate-induced disease risks across hazard, exposure, and vulnerability domains at the animal, human, and environmental interface. This entails the co-development of early warning and response systems and tools to assess the costs and benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures across sectors, to increase health system resilience at regional and local levels and reveal novel policy entry points and opportunities. Our approach involves multi-level engagement, innovative methodologies, and novel data streams. We take advantage of intelligence generated locally and empirically to quantify effects in areas experiencing rapid urban transformation and heterogeneous climate-induced disease threats. Our goal is to reduce the knowledge-to-action gap by developing an integrated One Health—Climate Risk framework.