Assessing impacts of future climate change on hydrological processes in an urbanizing watershed with a multimodel approach

Abstract

The sensitivity of hydrological processes to the changed environment is of great concern. The integrated impacts of climate change and urbanization in the future have been assessed in a watershed in Northwest China through a multimodel approach based on the combined application of Generalized Watershed Loading Functions, the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator, and the Land Change Modeler. The results showed that both climate change and urbanization would lead to more watershed streamflow, and their combination would have synergistic effects on additional increases. In addition, there would be different seasonal distributions of streamflow with a greater proportion of runoff. These study results are helpful in supporting projects and/or decision-making processes for managers by providing more insights into the regional hydrological changes affected by climate change and urbanization. The proposed methodology of the combined multimodel approach may be applicable in other areas with similar conditions. HIGHLIGHTS A multimodel linkage approach was proposed for future hydrological estimations.; The individual and combined effects of climate change and urbanization were investigated.; Both individual effects would increase streamflow and change its seasonal distribution.; The combined effect had a synergistic mechanism for the additive increase of streamflow.; There would be higher streamflow with more runoff and an earlier peak of snowmelt in future spring.;

Keywords

• climate change
• hydrological process
• land use
• model linkage
• urbanization