Potential impacts of climate change on global solar radiation and PV output using the CMIP6 model in West Africa

Abstract

In this study, six different PV power technology models from similar climatic environments in West Africa were used to estimate the potential of PV generation and apply the model to evaluate the effects of climate change on PV output in the region. This was achieved by using historical and projected satellite datasets obtained from the ECMWF database. It was found that, compared to other technologies, poly-crystalline silicon (p-Si) technology yielded the highest increase in solar PV output compared to other modules in both best-case and moderate-case scenarios. However, in the worst-case scenario, amorphous silicon (a-Si) technology produces less than a 1% increase in solar PV production, while other technologies produce less than a 1% decrease in solar PV output. The CMIP6 climate model was also used to assess the effects of climate change on the region's global solar radiation. With the exception of the near- and far-future Boreal winter seasons (DJF), as the impact of climate change intensifies, there may be a corresponding decrease in solar radiation in the moderate- and worst-case scenarios in different seasons between 2015-2050 and 2051–2100, as well as in the annual resolution implying that solar energy should be the main contributor to renewable energy and low-carbon economic planning in the region. In addition, the authors used historical datasets to develop and test 171 theoretical models to estimate West Africa's solar radiation potential. According to the error metrics, the CARIMA-LG hybrid surpassed other models developed in this study as well as those obtained from the literature.

Keywords

• Solar energy
• Climate change
• Global temperature
• Solar radiation
• Solar PV technologies