The Risk-Free Rate and Its Ripple Effect: Unveiling the Impact on Stock Prices in Pakistan

Abstract

Purpose This study examined the effect of the risk-free rate of return and other macroeconomic variables on the stock prices of firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange-100 (PSX). Methodology The data from 2013 to 2023 was collected from the Karachi Stock Exchange website, Yahoo Finance, and the State Bank of Pakistan’s website. The main techniques for data analysis were Johansen-Juselius (J.J.) cointegration and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Findings The findings show that a risk-free rate significantly impacts stock returns in the long run. Further, foreign direct investment (FDI) has a significant positive impact on the stock return of listed companies. The cointegration result indicates a long-run association among all the selected variables. Moreover, the results of the VECM show that the error correction term (ECT) in VECM (-1) is negative (-0.150) and significant. The negative coefficient of 0.150 indicates that deviations from the long-run equilibrium will be corrected at a speed of 15% per period, approximately within 7 months. Conclusion The study concludes that stock prices and macroeconomic indicators have long-run associations. Conversely, changes in the risk-free rate of return by the government or the banking sector have the opposite effect on stock prices. This study assists government officials, stock market participants, and policymakers in determining the profitability of the National Savings Scheme and Banks.

Keywords

• exchange rate
• gold prices
• interest rate
• co-integration
• vector error correction model (vecm)