Understanding the complex seasonality of seasonal influenza A and B virus transmission: Evidence from six years of surveillance data in Shanghai, China

Abstract

Objectives: Understanding the complexity of influenza subtype seasonality is critical to promoting a suitable vaccination program. The aim of this study was to identify and compare the seasonality and epidemiological features of seasonal influenza subtypes after the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic and to lay a foundation for further investigation into the social and environmental factors affecting seasonal influenza virus transmission. Methods: Influenza-like illness (ILI) case surveillance was conducted in two sentinel hospitals in Pudong New Area, Shanghai between 2012 and 2018. Weekly data on ILI cases were analyzed. A time-series seasonal decomposition analysis was used to reveal the seasonality of influenza and epidemiological features among different subtypes. Results: In total, 10 977 ILI patients were enrolled of whom 2385 (21.7%) had laboratory-confirmed influenza. Compared to influenza A (16.3%), influenza B (5.4%) was less frequently detected among the ILI patients (p < 0.001). Semiannual epidemic peaks were identified in four of the years during the 6-year study period, while only one annual epidemic peak was found in the other two years. An epidemic peak occurred in each winter season, and a secondary peak also occasionally occurred in summer or spring. A/H3N2 predominated in both summer and winter, while A/H1N1, B/Yamagata, and B/Victoria circulated almost exclusively in winter or spring. Two lineages of influenza B seemed to predominate in alternating years. Conclusions: This study highlights the complexity of seasonal influenza virus activity in a subtropical region of China, presenting both semiannual and annual epidemic peaks in different years. The results of this study may provide further insight into possible improvements in the timing of influenza vaccination in Shanghai, China. Keywords: Influenza, Seasonality, Transmission, Surveillance