Analyzing the Seasonality and Variability of Tourist Flows on the Example of the Western Regions of Ukraine

Abstract

The article is aimed at studying the evaluation of the irregular distribution of tourist flow and its variability during a year, as well as the division of territories within the country with different seasonality. In the analysis of seasonality in the tourism sector, it is proposed to calculate the index of seasonality of the number of tourists from summer to winter and from autumn to spring, which, respectively, allows to determine the coefficient of variation during the year. It is substantiated that the irregular tourist route is well visible in some regions, where the number of tourists in summer is 3–4 times higher than in winter, and the number of overnight stays is even 5–7 times higher. It is determined that in 2016–2018 in most regions was observed a negative, significant or statistically very significant tendency in the seasonality index of the number of tourists. Taking into account the values of seasonality indices for the number of both domestic and foreign tourists; number of days spent overnight, as well as the variation in the number of tourists per year, in the western regions of Ukraine are allocated four zones with different seasonality of tourist flow: very high (Carpathian zone); high (mountain zone), low (Zakarpattia); middle (Prykarpattia). It is concluded that in the temperate geographical latitudes of Europe, including Ukraine, the seasonality of the tourist movement is a natural phenomenon, mainly due to the variability of weather during the year, which can affect the management of human resources in tourism, profitability of the tourism economy, as well as the demand and supply of services.

Keywords

• seasonality
• variability
• tourist flows
• indicators
• regions
• domestic tourists
• foreign tourists