First evidence of a geodetic anomaly in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) ground deformation pattern revealed by DInSAR and GNSS measurements during the 2021–2023 escalating unrest phase

Abstract

Campi Flegrei caldera is an Italian high-risk volcano experiencing a progressively more intense long-term uplift, accompanied by increasing seismicity and geochemical emissions over the last two decades. Ground deformation shows an axisymmetric bell-shaped pattern, with a maximum uplift of about 120 cm, from 2005, in the caldera central area. We analyzed Sentinel-1 and COSMO-SkyMed Multi-Temporal DInSAR measurements and GNSS data to reveal and investigate a geodetic anomaly that has clearly manifested since 2021, locally deviating from the typical bell-shaped deformation pattern. This anomaly is located east of Pozzuoli town, in the Mt. Olibano–Accademia area, covers an area of about 1.3 km2 and shows, in comparison to surrounding areas, a maximum uplift deficit of about 9 cm between 2021 and 2023. To investigate the anomaly causes, we analyzed the caldera seismicity and inverted the DInSAR data to determine the primary source of the ground deformation pattern, which is consistent with a penny-shaped source located approximately 3800 m beneath the Pozzuoli town, with a radius of about 1200 m. We also found that the time evolution of the uplift deficit in the geodetic anomaly area correlates well with the earthquake occurrence, with the greater magnitude events clustering in this area. These considerations suggest the geodetic anomaly is a local response to the tensile stress regime produced by the inflating primary deformation source. This phenomenon can be influenced by the Mt. Olibano–Accademia lava domes lithological heterogeneities that may induce a localized reaction to ground deformation during the inflationary phase. Our interpretation aligns with the concentration of earthquakes and hydrothermal fluid emissions in this area, indicating the presence of faults, fractures, and fluid circulation. Accordingly, the geodetic anomaly area represents a zone of crustal weakness that requires careful monitoring and study.

Keywords

• DInSAR
• GNSS
• Campi Flegrei
• Analytical Modeling
• Anomaly detection