Develop a bankruptcy forecasting model for state-owned companies using macroeconomic, managerial, financial and political variables

Abstract

Subject and Objective: The advancement of technology has accelerated the economy, and increasing competition from companies has limited profitability and increased the likelihood of bankruptcy. The purpose of this study is to develop a model for predicting bankruptcy of state-owned companies in which non-factors Use macroeconomic, managerial, and political finance. Research Method: This research is of applied type. The statistical sample of the study includes 75 bankrupt and non-bankrupt government companies in the period 2019-2010.By exploratory factor analysis, 44 variables that had impact on bankruptcy were selected and by confirmatory factor analysis, a questionnaire was sent to the experts Research Findings: By reviewing the questionnaires and regression analysis of the variables, the best output with 8 variables was selected as the research model. Conclusion, originality and its Contribution to the knowledge: The research model, which relies on financial, economic, managerial and political variables, identified 92.4% of bankrupt state-owned companies and 86% of non-bankrupt state-owned companies.

Keywords

• bankruptcy forecasting
• macroeconomic variables
• management factors
• state-owned companies