On Multidisciplinary Investigations of Dangerous Natural Phenomena in the Azov–Black Sea Basin

Abstract

Certain results of investigating dangerous phenomena and potential natural disasters in the Azov–Black Sea basin are represented. The decrease of storm activity in the Black Sea observed in the end of the XX century is due to diminution of total amount and intensity of the passing cyclones. According to long-term tendencies of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic Oscillation atmosphere indices, future increase of the storm amount in the Black Sea would be expected. The effective sources of storm surges in the Sea of Azov are the atmospheric cyclones spreading with the 20–40 km/h velocity. The decrease of a cyclone movement velocity results in a storm surge intensification in the Gulf of Taganrog and increase of the flooded area in the Don delta. When the Don discharge becomes lower than the threshold value ~1600 m3/s, the wind surge exerts a blocking impact upon the river water that promotes the sea level rise in the branches and the delta lowland. The highest potential tsunami hazard for the Black Sea northern coast is represented by the earthquake epicenters located in the Crimea – Caucasus seismic zone. Noticeable sea level oscillations can arise in some locations of the Crimea Southern Coast as a result of the trapped waves propagating to the northwest, north and northeast from the seismic centers nearby the southern coast of the sea.

Keywords

• storm winds
• storm surge
• tsunami
• numerical modeling
• the Black Sea
• the Sea of Azov