Promoting Low-Risk Fire Regimes: An Agent-Based Model to Explore Wildfire Mitigation Policy Options
Paulo Flores Ribeiro,
Francisco Moreira,
Maria João Canadas,
Ana Novais,
Miguel Leal,
Sandra Oliveira,
Rafaello Bergonse,
José Luís Zêzere,
José Lima Santos
Affiliations
Paulo Flores Ribeiro
Forest Research Centre and Associated Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, Universidade de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal
Francisco Moreira
CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal
Maria João Canadas
Forest Research Centre and Associated Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, Universidade de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal
Ana Novais
Forest Research Centre and Associated Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, Universidade de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal
Miguel Leal
Forest Research Centre and Associated Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, Universidade de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal
Sandra Oliveira
Centre of Geographical Studies and Associated Laboratory TERRA, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, Universidade de Lisboa, Edifício IGOT, Rua Branca Edmée Marques, 1600-276 Lisbon, Portugal
Rafaello Bergonse
Centre of Geographical Studies and Associated Laboratory TERRA, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, Universidade de Lisboa, Edifício IGOT, Rua Branca Edmée Marques, 1600-276 Lisbon, Portugal
José Luís Zêzere
Centre of Geographical Studies and Associated Laboratory TERRA, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, Universidade de Lisboa, Edifício IGOT, Rua Branca Edmée Marques, 1600-276 Lisbon, Portugal
José Lima Santos
Forest Research Centre and Associated Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, Universidade de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal
Landscape patterns and composition were identified as key drivers of fire risk and fire regimes. However, few studies have focused on effective policymaking aimed at encouraging landowners to diversify the landscape and make it more fire-resilient. We propose a new framework to support the design of wildfire mitigation policies aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes based on land use/land cover choices by landowners. Using the parishes of a fire-prone region in central Portugal as analysis units, a two-step modelling approach is proposed, coupling an agent-based model that simulates land use/land cover choice and a logistic model that predicts fire regimes from a set of biophysical variables reported as important fire regime drivers in the literature. The cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes at the parish level is assessed. Our results are in line with those of previous studies defending the importance of promoting landscape heterogeneity by reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or shrubland areas as a measure to reduce the risk of wildfire. Results also suggest the usefulness of the framework as a policy simulation tool, allowing policymakers to investigate how annual payments supporting agricultural or shrubland areas, depending on the policy mix, can be very cost-effective in removing a substantial number of parishes from high-risk fire regimes.
