Vulnerability Evolution of a Container Shipping Network in an Uncertain Environment: The Case of China–United States Connections

Abstract

Container transportation has the advantages of standardization, high efficiency, and high safety, which are essential for promoting the development of the world economy and trade. Emergencies such as severe weather, public health incidents, and social security incidents can negatively affect the operational reliability of the container shipping network. To ensure the network security and high-quality operation of container shipping, a double-layer coupled container transportation network is first described to analyze the evolution of the container shipping network and the risk propagation dynamics of operation participants. On this basis, a cascade failure model of the container shipping network considering risk level is constructed. To evaluate the vulnerability of the container shipping network, the transmission mechanism of cascade failure effects of the container shipping network under different emergency development trends and the evolution law and influence path of the container shipping network structure are both analyzed. Finally, we empirically studied the container shipping network in China and the United States, and characteristic parameters of the China–U.S. container shipping network are calculated and analyzed. The model’s validity is verified through practical cases and model simulation results, and the cascading failure process of the container shipping network in China and the United States under three types of attacks is simulated. Suggestions are provided for effective improvement in the vulnerability of the container shipping network under every kind of contingency.

Keywords

• China–U.S. container shipping network
• complex network
• vulnerability analysis
• cascading failures