Modeling rapidly disseminating infectious disease during mass gatherings

Abstract

Abstract We discuss models for rapidly disseminating infectious diseases during mass gatherings (MGs), using influenza as a case study. Recent innovations in modeling and forecasting influenza transmission dynamics at local, regional, and global scales have made influenza a particularly attractive model scenario for MG. We discuss the behavioral, medical, and population factors for modeling MG disease transmission, review existing model formulations, and highlight key data and modeling gaps related to modeling MG disease transmission. We argue that the proposed improvements will help integrate infectious-disease models in MG health contingency plans in the near future, echoing modeling efforts that have helped shape influenza pandemic preparedness plans in recent years.

Keywords

• Model
• mathematical
• epidemic
• outbreaks
• epidemiology
• mass gathering
• school closure
• clustering
• reactive vaccination
• movement
• social networks/