Exploration of prognostic factors for critical COVID-19 patients using a nomogram model

Abstract

Abstract The study aimed to explore the influencing factors on critical coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients’ prognosis and to construct a nomogram model to predict the mortality risk. We retrospectively analyzed the demographic data and corresponding laboratory biomarkers of 102 critical COVID-19 patients with a residence time ≥ 24 h and divided patients into survival and death groups according to their prognosis. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to assess risk factors for critical COVID-19 patients and a nomogram was constructed based on the screened risk factors. Logistic regression analysis showed that advanced age, high peripheral white blood cell count (WBC), low lymphocyte count (L), low platelet count (PLT), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) were associated with critical COVID-19 patients mortality risk (p < 0.05) and these were integrated into the nomogram model. Nomogram analysis showed that the total factor score ranged from 179 to 270 while the corresponding mortality risk ranged from 0.05 to 0.95. Findings from this study suggest advanced age, high WBC, high hs-CRP, low L, and low PLT are risk factors for death in critical COVID-19 patients. The Nomogram model is helpful for timely intervention to reduce mortality in critical COVID-19 patients.