Short-term Electricity Load Forecasting Based on Improved Seagull Algorithm Optimized Gated Recurrent Unit Neural Network

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: The complexity of the power network, changes in weather conditions, diverse geographical locations, and holiday activities comprehensively affect the normal operation of power loads. Power load changes have characteristics such as non stationarity, randomness, seasonality, and high volatility. Therefore, how to construct accurate short-term power load forecasting models has become the key to the normal operation and maintenance of power. OBJECTIVES: Accurate short-term power load forecasting helps to arrange power consumption planning, optimize power usage and largely reduce power system losses and operating costs. METHODS: A hybrid decomposition-optimization-integration load forecasting method is proposed to address the problems of low accuracy of current short-term power load forecasting methods. RESULTS: The original power load time series is decomposed using the complete ensemble empirical modal decomposition method, while the correlation of power load influencing factors is analysed using Pearson correlation coefficients. The seagull optimisation algorithm is overcome to fall into local optimality by using the random adaptive non-linear adjustment strategy of manipulated variables and the differential variational Levy flight strategy, which improves the search efficiency of the algorithm. Then, the The gated cyclic unit hidden layer parameters are optimised by the improved seagull optimisation algorithm to construct a short-term electricity load forecasting model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by simulation experimental analysis. The results show that the proposed method has improved the accuracy of the forecasting model. CONCLUSION: The CEEMD method is used to decompose the original load time series, which improves the accuracy of the measurement model. The GRU prediction model based on improved SOA optimization not only has better prediction accuracy than other prediction models, but also consumes the least amount of time compared to other prediction models.

Keywords

• short-term electricity load forecasting
• gated cyclic unit
• seagull optimization algorithm
• complete ensemble empirical modal decomposition