Factors Affecting Iran’s Population Aging, 2016

Abstract

Background and purpose: Increase in elderly population of a country requires new policies and plans. Therefore, it is necessary to study the state of aging in the country and different provinces. This research aimed to study the status of population aging based on the recent census data and identifying effective factors in Iran. Materials and methods: Indicators of population aging, including the median age, dependency ratio, growth rate, sex ratio, illiteracy ratio, potential support ratio, parent support ratio, labor force participation, and general fertility rate were calculated for 31 provinces based on the population census information in 2016. Then multiple regression was used to identify the relationship between ageing and the indices aforementioned, in R package. Results: According to the results, the elderly population in Iran included 51% females and 49% males. General fertility rate and potential support ratio were found to have significant effects on ageing (P<0.05). The lowest and highest rates of aging were seen in Sistan and Baluchestan (12.7) and Gilan provinces (74.5), respectively. Conclusion: Aging and its inevitable socio-economic, health and cultural consequences call for further (special) services for elderly population. Also, using the experience of other countries could be of great benefit.

Keywords

• population ageing
• iran
• multiple regression