Simulation of Pension Finance and Its Economic Effects (Written in Korean)

Abstract

The role of pension plans in the macroeconomy has been a subject of much interest for some years. It has come to be recognized that pension plans may alter basic macroeconomic behavior patterns. The net effects on both savings and labor supply are thus matters for speculation. The aim of the present paper is to provide quantitative results which may be helpful in attaching orders of magnitude to some of the possible effects. We are not concerned with the providing empirical evidence relating to actual behavior, but rather with deriving the macroeconomic implications for alternative possibilities. The pension plan interacts with the economy and the population in a number of ways. Demographic variables may thus affect both the economic burden of a national pension plan and the ability of the economy to sustain the burden. The tax transfer process associated with the pension plan may have implications for national patterns of saving and consumption. The existence of a pension plan may have implications also for the size of the labor force, inasmuch as labor force participation rates may be affected. Changes in technology and the associated changes in average productivity levels bear directly on the size of the national income, and hence on the pension contribution base. The vehicle for the analysis is a hypothetical but broadly realistic simulation model of an economic- demographic system into which is inserted a national pension plan. All income, expenditure, and related aggregates are in real terms. The economy is basically neoclassical; full employment is assumed, output is generated by a Cobb-Douglas production process, and factors receive their marginal products. The model was designed for use in computer simulation experiments. The simulation results suggest a number of general conclusions. These may be summarized as follows; The introduction of a national pension plan (funded system) tends to increase the rate of economic growth until cost exceeds revenue. A scheme with full wage indexing is more expensive than one in which pensions are merely price indexed. The rate of technical progress is not a critical element in determining the economic burden of the pension scheme. Raising the rate of benefits affects its economic burden, and raising the age of eligibility may decrease the burden substantially. The level of fertility is an element in determining the long-run burden. A sustained low fertility rate increases the proportion of the aged in total population and increases the burden of the pension plan. High fertility has inverse effects.