The Russian population of the near abroad: geodemographic dynamics of the post-Soviet period

Abstract

This article explores the geodemographic dynamics of the Russian population of the near abroad in the post-Soviet period. It analyzes the quantitative changes and transformation of its geography, the level of urbanization and the gender and age structure. The study shows that in the post-Soviet period there was a sharp decline in the number of Russians in all of the near abroad. This process was most intensive in the 1990s. The maximum demographic losses during this period were suffered by the Russian population of Transcaucasia and a number of countries in Central Asia. At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the rate and absolute scale of decline are decreasing, but the trend itself remains stable. This is associated with the natural decline of the Russian population, its migration to Russia and foreign countries, and assimilation. The relationship of these factors to the quantitative decline has varied across time and across individual countries. In almost all Russian communities a significant preponderance of women is recorded. The median age of Russians in all countries of the near abroad is more than 40 years. The level of urbanization of Russians in most of these countries has decreased. Better preserved are the metropolitan and rural Russian populations. The demographic ratio of the Russian communities of individual countries and macroregions has changed. The numbers of Russians in Kazakhstan and Ukraine (without the people's republics of Donbass) are already comparable, and there are more Russians in the Baltic countries than in Central Asia. Russian communities of unrecognized (or partially recognized) States are characterized by increased demographic stability.

Keywords

• the near abroad
• Russian population
• geodemographic dynamics
• sex and age structure
• level of urbanization
• migration