Time Needed to Control an Epidemic with Restricted Resources in SIR Model with Short-Term Controlled Population: A Fixed Point Method for a Free Isoperimetric Optimal Control Problem

Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to determine the optimal duration of an anti-epidemic control strategy which targets susceptible people, under the isoperimetric condition that we could not control all individuals of this category due to restricted health resources. We state and prove the local and global stability conditions of free and endemic equilibria of a simple epidemic compartmental model devised in the form of four ordinary differential equations which describe the dynamics of susceptible-controlled-infected-removed populations and where it is taken into account that the controlled people cannot acquire long-lived immunity to move towards the removed compartment due to the temporary effect of the control parameter. Thereafter, we characterize the sought optimal control and we show the effectiveness of this limited control policy along with the research of the optimal duration that is needed to reduce the size of the infected population. The isoperimetric constraint is defined over a fixed horizon, while the objective function is defined over a free horizon present under a quadratic form in the payoff term. The complexity of this optimal control problem requires the execution of three numerical methods all combined together at the same time, namely, the forward–backward sweep method to generate the optimal state and control functions, the secant method adapted to the isoperimetric restriction, and, finally, the fixed point method to obtain the optimal final time.

Keywords

• epidemic model
• optimal control
• isoperimetric constraint
• free horizon
• fixed point method