Scientific Reports (May 2022)

Distance to public transit predicts spatial distribution of dengue virus incidence in Medellín, Colombia

  • Talya Shragai,
  • Juliana Pérez-Pérez,
  • Marcela del Pilar Quimbayo-Forero,
  • Raúl Rojo,
  • Laura C. Harrington,
  • Guillermo Rúa-Uribe

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12115-6
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 12, no. 1
pp. 1 – 8

Abstract

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Abstract Dengue is a growing global threat in some of the world’s most rapidly growing landscapes. Research shows that urbanization and human movement affect the spatial dynamics and magnitude of dengue outbreaks; however, precise effects of urban growth on dengue are not well understood because of a lack of sufficiently fine-scaled data. We analyzed nine years of address-level dengue case data in Medellin, Colombia during a period of public transit expansion. We correlate changes in the spread and magnitude of localized outbreaks to changes in accessibility and usage of public transit. Locations closer to and with a greater utilization of public transit had greater dengue incidence. This relationship was modulated by socioeconomic status; lower socioeconomic status locations experienced stronger effects of public transit accessibility and usage on dengue incidence. Public transit is a vital urban resource, particularly among low socioeconomic populations. These results highlight the importance of public health services concurrent with urban growth.