Testing dynamic relationship in long - run of determinants affecting on agricultural growth in Mekong Delta

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic relationship of agricultural growth and its determinants in long-term as well as the speed of adjustment of any deviation from the equilibrium state due to any shock in the process in Mekong Delta region. The Pooled mean group (PMG) estimation techniques developed by Perasan and Smith (1995) and Perasan, Shin, and Smith (1999) is applied to the case study of 13 provinces of Mekong Delta over the long period of 25 years from 1990 to 2015. On the one hand, the estimation result reveals that agricultural labor forces, farmlands and mechanization have significant positive effects at 1% level, while fertilizer has a negative influence on the long - term growth in Mekong Delta agriculture. On the other hand, fertilizer, farmlands and tractors are three main factors contributing to the short-term growth. The empirical result also indicates that shocks cause agricultural growth to deviate from the equilibrium stage. However, the speed of the adjustment of growth agricultural back to stability is quite small at 11,39% per year.

Keywords

• đồng bằng sông cửu long
• quan hệ năng động
• tăng trưởng nông nghiệp
• ướclượng pmg