Re-electrification in China Under the Carbon Neutrality Goal

Abstract

As carbon peak and carbon neutrality have been incorporated into the overall layout of China’s ecological civilization construction, electric power will play an increasingly important role in leading green development. Implementing re-electrification to realize clean substitution at the energy production side and electric energy substitution at the energy consumption side is significant for China to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality on schedule. In this article, we analyze the concept of re-electrification and propose to help China achieve low-carbon development with re-electrification considering the basic national conditions and resource endowment of the country. We analyze the evolution trend of energy and power in China under different scenarios using a research framework of terminal energy demand—energy conversion system—primary energy structure while considering the factors of economy, technology, policy, and environment. The development prospect of re-electrification is also proposed. The research results show that re-electrification will significantly promote carbon neutrality. In 2060, the proportions of non-fossil energy consumption, clean energy power generation, and terminal power consumption will reach 80%, 90%, and 70%, respectively. Therefore, we suggest that China should (1) coordinate the carbon budget and emission reduction paths of various industries, (2) accelerate the adjustment of economic and industrial structures, (3) promote scientific and technological innovation in key fields, and (4) improve the policy systemfor power and carbon markets.

Keywords

• re-electrification
• carbon neutrality
• energy transition
• electric energy substitution