Estimation of viral kinetics model parameters in young and aged SARS-CoV-2 infected macaques

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 virus disproportionately causes serious illness and death in older individuals. In order to have the greatest impact in decreasing the human toll caused by the virus, antiviral treatment should be targeted to older patients. For this, we need a better understanding of the differences in viral dynamics between SARS-CoV-2 infection in younger and older adults. In this study, we use previously published averaged viral titre measurements from the nose and throat of SARS-CoV-2 infection in young and aged cynomolgus macaques to parametrize a viral kinetics model. We find that all viral kinetics parameters differ between young and aged macaques in the nasal passages, but that there are fewer differences in parameter estimates from the throat. We further use our parametrized model to study the antiviral treatment of young and aged animals, finding that early antiviral treatment is more likely to lead to a lengthening of the infection in aged animals, but not in young animals.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• SARS-CoV-2
• ageing
• parameter estimation
• mathematical model