Економічний вісник університету (Nov 2017)
Influence of Ukrainian stock market misbalances on economic development of the country with consideration of shadow economy schemes
Abstract
The subject of the following research is modeling and empirical analysis of the influence of Ukrainian stock market misbalances and shadow economy volume on country economic development. The purpose of the research is the analysis of scale and peculiarities of Ukrainian stock market misbalances on country macroeconomic indicators with respect of shadow economy schemes using developed econometric panel data models. During the following research general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis were used as well as comparative analysis, generalization, systematization and grouping of data, economic and mathematic tools, particularly panel data methods and models. Research results. Stock market is one of the most efficient ways of mobilization and allocation of capital. It plays an important role in acceleration of economic development of literally every country in the world. At the same time, unordered and inconsistent development of Ukrainian stock market as well as difficult economic and political country situation led to its inability to fully serve its functions which are inherent for efficient stock markets of developed countries. Firstly, this phenomenon is caused by Ukrainian stock market fragmentation; significant barriers during listing procedures and trade participation; pricing problems, existence of corruption schemes and illegal security operations and existence of significant misbalances. Advanced statistical analysis confirms hypothesis that shadow economy volume and shadow economy schemes existence on Ukrainian stock market are considerable factors of stock market misbalances. This confirms the necessity to take into account shadow economy schemes while evaluating the influence of Ukrainian stock market misbalances on country economic development. Calculation results based on developed econometric panel data model and a sequence of its modifications showed that for countries with developing stock markets significant and influential for its efficiency and investment attraction are financial and economic international image, listing easiness and accessibility which leads to the numbers of listed companies increase and shadow economy volume decrease. Conducted scenario analysis of positive and negative stock market misbalances influence in different countries on their economic development proved its asymmetrical feature. Accordingly, while developing stock market misbalances overcoming measures one should consider the its direction and deepening risks both in the short and middle run. Research results can be used for supporting managerial decisions of stock market regulatory entities, developing of state policy and strategic perspectives aimed on stimulation of future development and efficiency enhancement of Ukrainian stock market for the accommodation of gradual decrease of Ukrainian shadow economy volume, economic safety increase and economic development. Conclusions. During the last ten years considerable misbalances took place on Ukrainian stock market, especially the indicators such as market capitalization, volume of trades and the number of listed companies. At the time, significant share of shadow economy enhanced the negative effect mentioned above misbalances on economic development (welfare) of Ukraine. Conducted analysis revealed that misbalances overcoming measures should address first causes of its emergence, in essence immature stock market infrastructure, reserved market information, absence of investor rights ensuring, and inconsistency of Ukrainian stock market regulatory laws with EU standards. There measures will facilitate Ukrainian stock market development, its efficiency increase, considerable decrease of shadow economy opportunities, active involvement of internal private investors through banking system, risk of significant misbalances decrease. This altogether will finally have positive influence on economic safety and country economic development.
