Estimating Heat Stress Effects on the Sustainability of Traditional Freshwater Pond Fishery Systems under Climate Change
Matěj Orság,
Jan Meitner,
Milan Fischer,
Eva Svobodová,
Radovan Kopp,
Jan Mareš,
Petr Spurný,
Libor Pechar,
Ivana Beděrková,
Jan Hanuš,
Daniela Semerádová,
Jan Balek,
Marija Radojičić,
Martin Hanel,
Adam Vizina,
Zdeněk Žalud,
Miroslav Trnka
Affiliations
Matěj Orság
Global Change Research Institute CAS, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic
Jan Meitner
Global Change Research Institute CAS, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic
Milan Fischer
Global Change Research Institute CAS, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic
Eva Svobodová
Global Change Research Institute CAS, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic
Radovan Kopp
Department of Zoology, Fisheries, Hydrobiology and Apiculture, Faculty of AgriSciences, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1665/1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic
Jan Mareš
Department of Zoology, Fisheries, Hydrobiology and Apiculture, Faculty of AgriSciences, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1665/1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic
Petr Spurný
Department of Zoology, Fisheries, Hydrobiology and Apiculture, Faculty of AgriSciences, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1665/1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic
Department of Applied Ecology, Faculty of Agriculture and Technology, University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice, Studentská 1668, 370 05 České Budějovice, Czech Republic
Jan Hanuš
Global Change Research Institute CAS, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic
Daniela Semerádová
Global Change Research Institute CAS, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic
Jan Balek
Global Change Research Institute CAS, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic
Marija Radojičić
Department of Zoology, Fisheries, Hydrobiology and Apiculture, Faculty of AgriSciences, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1665/1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic
Martin Hanel
Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcká 129, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic
Adam Vizina
Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcká 129, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic
Zdeněk Žalud
Global Change Research Institute CAS, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic
Miroslav Trnka
Global Change Research Institute CAS, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic
Freshwater fish production is significantly correlated with water temperature, which is expected to increase under climate change. This study evaluated changes in water temperature and their impact on productive ponds at fisheries in the Czech Republic. A model was developed to calculate surface water temperature based on the five-day mean of the air temperature and was then tested in several ponds in three major Czech fish production areas. The output of the surface water temperature model was compared with independently measured data (r = 0.79–0.96), and the verified model was then applied to predict climate change conditions. The results were evaluated with regard to the thresholds characterizing the water temperature requirements of fish species and indicated that the limitation of Czech fish farming results from (i) an increased number of continuous periods during which given fish species are threatened by high water temperatures and (ii) the extension of continuous periods with stressful water temperatures. For Czech fisheries, the model suggests a sharp increase in unprecedented temperature regimes, which will pose critical challenges to traditional forms of common carp farming within several decades. Although reducing the level of eutrophication and loading them with organic substances might alleviate expected threads, farming current fish species in deeper and colder ponds at higher elevations might be inevitable.